Why everyone from doctors to investors is excited about this treatment?
In this edition of LEARNING OF THE WEEK, In today’s newsletter, we dive into the GLP-1 buzz, why doctors, patients, and even investors are all talking about this game-changing treatment.
From Hollywood to Silicon Valley, from doctors’ clinics to dinner table chats, GLP-1 is the hot topic, and for good reason. Originally designed for managing diabetes, it’s now the secret weapon behind weight loss stories of celebrities like Elon Musk and Oprah. So let’s dive in…
Let’s start with some eye-opening facts:
- After the age of 30, the average Indian adult gains around 1.5 to 2.0 kg every year.
- India holds the title of the “Diabetes Capital of the World,” has over 100 million diabetics and 77 mllion prediabetics, meaning 13% of the population is affected or at high risk, as per ICMR (2023)
- The medicine we’re talking about today is a class of drugs originally made for diabetes, but now it’s helping people lose 10–15 kg without crash diets or surgery.
GLP-1 Simplified: Your Body’s Natural Sugar & Appetite Controller
GLP-1 (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1) is a natural hormone released from your small intestine after you eat. It acts like a “meal messenger,” helping to control your blood sugar and making you feel full so you don’t overeat.
What happens when GLP-1 Fails?
In a healthy person, after eating, GLP-1 is released and does all those good things explained above. But unfortunately, not all of us are healthy, right? In medical science, when the body fails to produce enough GLP-1 or respond to it properly, it often leads to conditions like diabetes.
In diabetic or obese people, the GLP-1 system doesn’t work properly. Their body either makes less GLP-1 or doesn’t respond to it well. Because of this, enough insulin is not released, the liver keeps releasing too much sugar, and a person doesn’t feel full easily. This leads to higher blood sugar, more hunger, and difficulty losing weight. That’s why medicines that mimic GLP-1 are helpful for them.
Enter GLP-1 receptor agonists (RA). As mentioned above, these are medicines that copy this hormone’s action. They help your body release insulin when sugar is high, reduce another hormone (glucagon) that raises sugar, slow down how fast food leaves your stomach, and keep you feeling full. An added advantage of GLP-1 is that, unlike older diabetes meds, they work only when needed, so there’s less risk of your sugar dropping too low.
Diabetic vs a Non-Diabetic
Before discussing how actually GLP 1 works, let’s now understand diabetes and its types, and how the body of a diabetic person works differently compared to a normal person?
In diabetes, either your body doesn’t make enough insulin or it can’t use insulin properly. As a result, sugar stays too high in your blood, which can cause problems over time. With respect to India, ~101 million adults (11.4% of the population) are living with diabetes, which can be divided into the following two types.
Type 1 Diabetes: Your body stops making insulin completely because the immune system attacks insulin-making cells. Usually starts at a young age, this form is less common in India, constituting ~5–10% of all cases.
Type 2 Diabetes: Your body makes insulin but can’t use it properly (insulin resistance), and over time, it makes less insulin too. This is the most common type, often linked to lifestyle and weight. ~90–95% of cases in India are type
Pre-diabetes is when your blood sugar is higher than normal but not high enough to be called diabetes. It’s a warning sign that you could get diabetes if you don’t make some changes in diet, exercise, or lifestyle. Around 136 million adults (15.3% of the population) have pre-diabetes.
In summary, today ~25% of India’s population is either diabetic or on the verge of diabetes (pre-diabetic). It’s a clear sign of how important it is to focus on its prevention and management.
GLP-1 Uncovered: From Discovery to Today’s Breakthrough
Now that we are clear about GLP-1’s benefits in controlling diabetes, there is an even more interesting angle to it. Imagine munching on snacks all day and still shedding kilos, no strict diets, sweaty gym sessions, or endless struggle. That’s the surprising angle of GLP-1 drugs, they help you lose weight effortlessly by working with your body, not against it. Let’s dive into its history before getting into the working of it.
GLP-1 was discovered in the 1980s by scientists studying gut hormones and how the body controls blood sugar after meals. They found that GLP-1 is released from the intestine after eating and helps regulate insulin, reduce glucagon, slow digestion, and control appetite.
The first GLP-1-based medicine, Exenatide (Byetta), was launched in 2005 by Amylin Pharmaceuticals in partnership with Eli Lilly, marking the start of GLP-1 drugs in the market.
Initially, Eli Lilly led the race with Exenatide, gaining early success in treating type 2 diabetes. However, over time, Novo Nordisk entered with newer, more effective GLP-1 drugs like Liraglutide and Semaglutide (keep this in mind), which not only improved blood sugar control but also helped with weight loss and heart health. Today, both these companies cumulatively hold more than 80% of the Global market share
World’s GLP-1 Obsession: The Reasons Why?
Old drug, new fame. Curious why a 2005 medicine is trending today? If this is the Question that is coming into your mind, let’s not waste time and talk about it straight away.
As mentioned above, GLP-1 drugs are gaining worldwide attention not just for diabetes, but also for weight management. Celebrities like Elon Musk credited them for weight loss, while Oprah Winfrey highlighted how they help reduce cravings.
Another big reason why GLP-1 RA has become the talk of the town today is that one of the main GLP-1 drugs, “Semaglutide”, is going to see a significant price reduction (up to 80%), thus making it accessible to a broader population compared to before. Like all medicines, Semaglutide is nearing the end of its drug cycle, and that’s opening the door for generics to take over.
Developing a flagship drug typically takes 10–15 years, with costs often running in billions and no promise of success. Patents, granted for 20 years from the R&D stage, leave companies with just 5–10 years of market exclusivity to recover their investment and to earn profit. This model encourages innovation while ensuring that, after patent expiry, low-cost generics can reach the masses. Here is the “Drug Cycle” broken down into 5 stages.
GLP-1 drugs also offer a range of added health benefits. Emerging research suggests they may also help protect the heart, kidneys, liver, and even the brain. Potential benefits now include reducing blood pressure, slowing kidney disease, aiding fatty liver, and possibly lowering risks of dementia, depression, and addiction. Here’s how GLP-1 stacks up against familiar names:
Comparing Diabetes Medications: Dosing, Pricing, and Accessibility
GLP-1 agonists offer convenient daily or weekly dosing and added benefits like weight loss and appetite control, but come at a high cost. In comparison, Metformin and Sulfonylureas are much cheaper but lack those additional benefits. With “Semaglutide” expected to go off patent in 2026, the drug is expect to become more accessible as discussed above.
With options like once-weekly injections and daily pills, GLP-1 drugs are not only safer but also more convenient, making them a valuable tool in managing both diabetes and obesity.
With the patent for Semaglutide, one of the main GLP-1 drugs, set to expire in 2026, generic versions are expected to significantly lower costs, making these therapies more accessible. Their convenient dosing and wide-ranging health benefits have propelled GLP-1s into the global healthcare spotlight.
The Bottom Line
In conclusion, GLP-1 drugs are rapidly gaining global acceptance, evolving from diabetes treatments to powerful tools against obesity and related health issues. The global GLP-1 market is expected to triple by 2035, growing from $49.3B (₹4 lakh crore) to $157.5B (₹12 lakh crore) at a CAGR of 11.1%.
Back home, India’s GLP-1 market remains in its early stages but is picking up pace fast; the market is set to grow from ₹870 crore ($105 million) in 2023 to ₹4,800 Cr ($579 million) by 2030, anticipating a stellar CAGR of 27.5%.
Leading Indian pharma players like Sun Pharma, Biocon, Zydus, Lifesciences, Cipla, Dr. Reddy’s, Lupin, and Glenmark are leveraging government PLI schemes, ramping up in-house R&D, focusing on vertical integration, and expanding globally to secure a fast and competitive entry into the GLP-1 market.
As affordability improves post-patent and more players enter the fray, these drugs are poised to reshape the future of metabolic healthcare, both globally and in India.
On a lighter note, semaglutide isn’t just a game-changer for diabetes, it’s a blessing for those struggling with obesity, especially the ones who always dreamed of losing weight without strict diets or sweaty gym sessions.
Are you as excited about Semaglutide as the rest of the world? If yes, don’t hold back, drop your thoughts and let us know!
Happy Investing!
Disclaimer: These insights are based on our observations and interpretations, which might not be complete or accurate. Bastion Research and its associates do not have any stake in companies mentioned. This newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide any kind of investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information shared in this newsletter.
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